"Funding will no longer go to those who are most at risk from climate-impacts and with low adaptive capacity, but will go to those who are lucky enough to live in regions of the world where weather extremes happen to be most attributable by climate models to human agency. These regions tend to be in mid-to-high latitudes, with lots of good weather data and well calibrated models. So, goodbye Africa."Source: The Guardian
Economic, including insured, disaster losses associated with weather, climate, and geophysical events are higher in developed countries. Fatality rates and economic losses expressed as a proportion of GDP are higher in developing countries (high confidence).
Particularly in WE, variability has been suggestedThat's a good start, but this issue is complex and it will take me some time to investigate further. For the moment it's worth noting that this apparent amplification of high-end variance seems to have been increasing during each of the last 3 decades, this does not look good to me.
to increase at interannual and intraseasonal time-scales (1, 2)
as a result of increased land-atmosphere coupling (28) and
changes in the surface energy and water budget (2, 29).
Many extreme weather and climate events continue to be the result of natural climate variability. Natural variability will be an important factor in shaping future extremes in addition to the effect of anthropogenic changes in climate.This sort of detail will be jumped upon by the denialists to produce confusion about the ongoing climate change. This is evidenced by an NOAA study finding that the Russian Heatwave of 2010 was caused by a blocking high. This is not arguable, without the blocking high there wouldn't have been an extreme heatwave, however all weather is now happening in a Global Warming world. Cattiaux, 2010, "Winter 2010 in Europe: A cold extreme in a warming climate" ( PDF) finds that the best analogue in terms of atmospheric circulation for the cold winter of 2009/10 is the extreme winter of 1963, yet winter 2009/10 was not as cold as 1963. Similarly the 2010 Russian Heatwave took place against a background of not just global warming, but a substantial increase in the occurrence of high sigma warm events. So merely concentrating on the atmospheric pattern involved is not telling the whole story. For the denialists 'not telling the whole story' is part of their modus operandi.